Commentary By Ron Cheong
News Americas, NEW YORK, NY, Sun. Nov. 10, 2024: Many will be pouring over the statistics of the November 5th US election, trying to find why America took such a dark turn. In fact, that was how this article started out, and we shall touch on some of that. But then the realization struck that was like examining the visible symptoms of an illness without trying to understanding its underlying causal mechanisms.
The truth is that the “how” was right before our very eyes. That how is a combination of instinctual tactics which conman, grifter and aspiring dictator Trump has been employing and honing over the decades, incorporating them into his Playbook, but which have been formally known to, and studied by researchers for much longer. Two of these tactics are described following experiments:
- The Asch Conformity Studies (1951) – which shows the degree to which people’s own opinions can be influence by those of a group. In fact, people are willing to ignore their own reality and adopt incorrect group think in order to conform to the group.
- Jane Elliott’s Blue Eyes/Brown Eyes (1968) Experiment on Prejudice. This experiment showed that you can take any group (or country) split it into two groups on some arbitrary factor like eye colour or height, and that you can turn them against each other.
The Ash Conformity impact – And its use the Abortion and Immigrant issues.
In the Ash Conformity Study several individuals are placed in a group to participate in what’s called a vision test. All the participants except the individual being studied are accomplices who have been told before-hand how to answer as each pair of pictures are brought up. The task is simply enough, name which line A, B or C that is the same length as the line on the left.
In the beginning the accomplices all give the correct answer. But then the accomplices would on occasion all give the same incorrect answer. They did so confidently and before the subject individual had spoken. Gradually subjects would begin to confirm to the accomplices’ incorrect answers even though their own choice for the answer was different.
The study found that the subjects conformed to the incorrect answer 32% of the time. Only 6% of the subject individuals never conformed. 74% of subjects conformed at least once. Strikingly, the higher the status of the accomplices compared to the subjects, the higher the degree of conformity.
Trump Playbook: Do not Believe Your Eyes an Ears – The Conformity Impact – Voting against your own beliefs
Trump uses a version of the conformity pressure above. How many times have we heard Trump tell his followers not to believe their ears and eyes. “Just remember: What you’re seeing and what you’re reading is not what’s happening.” And his modus operandi is, “If you say it (i.e. any lie) enough and keep saying it, they’ll start to believe you.” So he repeats what he wants his supporters to believe over and over. Like the election lie and stop the steal. Now 70% of Republicans believe that the 2020 elections were stolen.
This is a tactic used by authoritarians. In this election Trump has turned it on less educated lower income voters in particular, increasing his already strong hold on this segment.
And we can also see the evidence for this conformation mechanism at work in the NBC exit poll statistics, which show the voting public appearing to vote contrary to their stated views on Abortion (65% say it should be legal), and undocumented immigrants (56% say they should be given a chance to apply legally vs 40% say they should be deported).
In the case of abortion which was a large part of Harris’ campaign, two-thirds of voters said they think abortion should be legal, up 14 points from 2020. Indeed 7 pro abortion ballot measured passed including in states where Trump won. However, when it came to the Presidential vote, they voted Trump. Consequently, Harris barely picked up barely 1% of the White female vote although she was championing what is their own belief. No doubt their vote also contained some element of group loyalty addressed below
Jane Elliott’s Blue Eyes/Brown Eyes (1968) Experiment on Prejudice – And Dividing America
Educator Jane Elliott is quoted as saying: “I watched wonderful, thoughtful children turn into nasty, vicious, discriminating little third-graders.”
The experiment involved dividing the third-grade class into two groups based on their eye color: blue-eyed and brown-eyed. But any criteria can be used tall/short etc. The idea is one group is designated as the better than the other – an in-group and out-group.
Skipping over the details for the sake of brevity the blue-eyes for example are pitted against the brown-eyes. Their differences were highlighted and mentioned continuously. Misunderstandings and disagreements were encouraged. One group was treated much better or worse than the other. Various ways were found to emphasize how one group was better or worse than the other. Envy, jealousy, and resentment were stoked.
It didn’t take long for tensions to build and boil over.
The Blue Eyes/Brown Eyes Experiment provided compelling evidence that prejudice and discrimination are deeply embedded in social dynamics and can be easily manipulated through authority and social conditioning.
Trump Playbook: Dividing America into the MAGA Out-Group Against the Privileged And selling himself as belonging to that underprivileged Out-Group
This is what Trump has done on the immigrant Issue. He has divided the country into “Real Americans” and migrants. He has been building this wall for a while, years back, before he entered politics he demanded that Barrack Obama produce his birth certificate. And in this election, claiming that he didn’t care one way or the other, he tried to use the race of Harris as an issue, highlighting she’s a non-White by challenging whether she was Black or Indian.
He further divided Americans into the Privileged and a supposedly underprivileged MAGA group, telling them he is their Champion. He will, fight, fight, fight for them; despite all the evidence to the contrary such as his policies geared to the super rich. In addition, unlike them he received $413 million from his father and he flys around in his personal luxury 757 with its full bedroom, shower and 24-karat gold-plated bathroom fixtures.
Nevertheless, he has fully sold the MAGA cult-like membership, White and Non-White on the fiction that he’s one of them. And he seems to have endeared himself to this out-group with his authoritarianism, the way he talks, his unconventionalism and other personal behaviours they value including “manliness”, further telling MAGA he loves them and cuddling and kissing the American flag. And not least of all his “professed” strong Christian faith.
In short he has successfully managed to partly mirror the MAGA, and convinced them of his MAGAness (including being a gun person and talk of shooting people including Liz Cheney.) MAGA supporters top issue include Gun Rights, Pro-police and Pro-life; all of which, and not by accident, Trump strongly embraces. To say that Trump knows his base would be an understatement. And that has keep his support firmly in the 40+% range without falter (this election he realised he need to expand beyond the core base to take him over the top, and as discussed below he successfully target Latino men and the Democratic territory of young voters.
A university of Washington study describes the MAGA base:
At least 60 percent of them are White, Christian and male. Further, around half are retired, over 65 years of age, and earn at least $50K per year. Finally, roughly 30 percent have at least a college degree. That MAGA supporters are older, Christian, men, more than half of whom are retired. What may seem a bit surprising is that about half are middle-class by income, and almost 1/3 are middle-class by educational criteria.
Trump Playbook: Augmenting the MAGA base for this election – Creating the Macho-Man Latino In-group
Trumps actions may seem random and spontaneous, but ever action he takes is a purposeful part of his con and his grift – just as he lies continuously his every act also is directed at a specific deception. Conning is his life’s work and he never stops, even when he goes to play a golf game.
In this election, realising he had to augment his core base, he again used the in-group/out-group strategy to make significant inroads in the Latino vote. Harris lost 7 points share of the non-White vote, most of which is attributable losses in the Hispanic and particularly the male Hispanic vote. He did this while lashing out with anti-immigrant remarks, threats to deport millions, treating Puerto Rico poorly, and the Madison Square Gardens bashing of minorities.
How did he do it? He created a macho sub in- group (as opposed to the MAGA out-Group). Latinos are known for the machismo culture. He had Hulk Hogan ripping off his shirts at his rallies, he on boarded the pumped up Robert Kennedy, his all-man Arnold Palmer comment, plus his other seemingly obscene behavior would have actually be aimed at this particular type of audience.
It is interesting to see the modification he makes when messaging to the MAGA Out-group –especially the young lower income less educated segment of the group. For this performance he donned a “garbage” man’s uniform complete with reflective vest and sitting in a real life garbage truck. For the uninitiated this just seemed like an over the top stunt – a total bust. But his target audience got the message loud and clear: They consider you garbage, but I’m with you, I’m your man. They hear it and they’re juiced up and ready to rally to their man’s side. This is a classic manipulation for a man who flies around with gold faucets, whose chief cheerleader is the richest man in the world, and who would not raise the minimum wage while he enables his billionaire chums to rake in more billions in the backs of those he tells: I’m with you.
Time to retool for the battle for the minds of Americans.
The above discussions about Trump’s Playbook has sought to reveal some of the mechanisms used by Trump, one of the greatest con artist of our times. Even if he would rake the forests to prevent forest fires, inject Clorox to cure Covid, lacks a perspective or interest in history or philosophy or ethics or loyalty or empathy or any of the other attributes required of a President, his strong suit is that he is a natural gifted grifter and con man without equal.
His Playbook is what the Democratic party should be trying to get its head around and devising strategies to blunt and counteract the mass brainwashing that is his greatest skill.
Lay off the finger pointing, Biden did a great job for the country at a critical time, he brought the country back into the world community, launched a massive infrastructure program and his administration brought the economy in for a “soft” landing for the first time in 70 years – with interest rates coming down. And Harris ran a great campaign. The NBC exit survey indicates that 86% of voters made up their mind more than two months before the election. So it appears improbable that either Biden or Harris or anyone else would have won.
The mainstream media also has a role to play. They have indirectly contributed to Trump’s ability to get away with these divisive play, treating the political coverage like the coverage of a dog and pony show, rather than doing real analysis and educating the public, thus exacerbating the low information voter problem.
In addition, six days after election day the updating of the number of votes cast beyond the early results reported has been slow to non-existent. But the few best numbers seen suggest that the 2024 vote is about 9 million less than 2020 before factoring the 2% or about a 5 million increase in the size of the electorate. And despite the frequent polling done in the states there appears to be no survey as to the reason for the drop. Though this does not invalidate the premises of Trump’s modus operandi, it might throw some light on the youth vote, and/or whether the widespread protests on the Palestinian issue translated into votes being withheld, or whether the Vice-Presidents gender or race played any part. It would have been incumbent on a useful and effective mainstream media to address this issue in a professional manner.
Now it’s time for retooling for the battle for the minds of America. The very segments of people he used to take the election will be the first hurt by his proposed policies and they will be looking to Democrat policies like the social safety net to tide them through.
Trump maybe a great conman but he is not invulnerable. The Russians have obviously studied Trump’s narcissism well, and started their plan to play him. Putin initially held back congratulating Trump on his win, instead saying through his press secretary Dmitry Peskov that, “that America was still an unfriendly country that is directly and indirectly involved in the war against their state (Ukraine support). After letting Trump stew a bit Putin glowingly praised him in a TV interview for his reaction to the first assassination attempt: “He behaved, in my opinion, in a very correct way, courageously, like a man,” Their head games on Trump have begun.
It’s time for America to take back the minds of Americans.
Kamala Harris showed she had seen through Trump’s fragile vanity Achilles heel at their debate and knew how to handle him. A small “crowd-size” prod caused him to explode and launce into the “eating cats and dogs in Springfield” tirade.
It’s time to build on that in the areas where he has created IN-GROUPS/OUT-GROUP (PRIVILIGED/OUTCASTS) as he has done with MAGA (convincing them that society treats them like outcasts) and Latino men (who he symbolically opened the door to in a privileged macho-man club).
And it’s time to help liberate the minds of the very many he has coerced with the Ash Conformity Impact (DO NOT BELIEVE YOUR OWN EYES AND EARS) – regarding Abortion and Immigrants. It’s time to disempower the Trump Play-book.
EDITOR’S NOTE: Ron Cheong, born in Guyana, is a community activist and dedicated volunteer with an extensive international background in banking. Now residing in Toronto, Canada, he is a fellow of the Institute of Canadian Bankers and holds a Bachelor of Science degree from the University of Toronto.
