By Ron Cheong
News Americas, NEW YORK, NY, Sun. Nov. 24, 2024: Donald Trump did not win the Election in a landslide; well-intentioned Democrats precipitated their Party’s loss by lower turnout as shown in the table of latest available numbers below:
Pro-Palestinian Protest Vote
Trump held unto his base with inroads into Latinos, other minorities – mainly Black males, and roughly kept abreast of the increase in electorate size with the intake of young, less educated, low income voters.
These gains amounted to 2.2 million, but the main factor that allowed his win was that Democratic turnout as reflected in their vote count, shrunk by 7.5 million or 9.3%, compared to 2020. Even if we ignore the growth in the size of the electorate and attribute all of Trump’s gain to cannibalization of Democratic votes, that leaves a 5.3 million or a 3.4% decline from in the overall vote, which translates into a 6.5% decline from the 2020 Presidential Democratic vote. This is attributable to staying away, failing to mark the top box, or writing something else.
A substantial part of the slippage was attributable to the pro-Palestinian vote abstention. The Muslim community was traumatised by the Biden administration’s support for Israel, and the large number of deaths in in Gaza
Although, Trump’s plans are well known, they might have figured that they couldn’t make things any worse, and throwing caution to the wind, switched to Trump.
Other dissatisfaction with the Gaza situation manifested in widespread Pro-Palestinian protests across the country, in cities, and on campuses. The left wing of the Democratic party was also mobilised by the Gaza tragedy. They tried and failed to get the Palestinian issue on the DNC convention agenda in exchange for not leaving the presidential vote on the ballot unfilled or writing in someone else’s name – resulting no doubt in many of them abstaining.
From rallying support for Trump to Regret
Rabiul Chowdhury, a Philadelphia investor who chaired the Abandon Harris campaign in Pennsylvania and co-founded Muslims for Trump said: “Trump won because of us….” In the 7 swing states combined with 93 electoral votes, it is estimated that the Muslim population accounted for 470,000 of the vote.”
“Trump won all 7 swing states with a margin of 764,000 votes over Harris. It is plausible that the Muslim vote plus non-Muslim Palestinian protest vote pushed Trump over the top in the swing states, which was the key to winning the election,” he added.
An NBC analysis lends support to this, it shows that Harris’ loss in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, “were driven by weak turnout in heavily Democratic cities,” like Wayne County, Philadelphia County and Milwaukee County.
But regret seems to have set in quickly, “… we’re not happy with his secretary of state pick and others,” said Chowdhury.
Trump picked Marco Rubio, a staunch Israel supporter for Secretary of State. Rubio has called Hamas vicious animals, and said he would not call for a cease fire in Gaza.
He also picked Mike Huckabee who has long called himself a Zionist, Ambassador to Israel. Huckabee is against a 2-state solution and has said, the West Bank belongs to Israel and also “the title deed was given by God to Abraham and to his heirs.” There is no such thing as a Palestinian.
And Elise Stefanik, who called the UN a “cesspool of antisemitism” for the agency condemning the deaths in Gaza, was picked to be the ambassador to the United Nations.
The collapse of the Democrat vote
It’s not hard to see how the Palestinian protest vote could have driven much of the Democrat’s collapsed vote in 2024. The Muslims vote which is traditionally overwhelmingly Democrat is estimated at about 1.4 million. Many of them could have abstained and others thrown their support behind Trump.
Third party candidates also to picked up some of the protest vote. In total independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy pulled in 746,000 votes. Jill Stein of the Green Party garnered 769,000 votes. A Council on American-Islamic Relations, (CAIR) survey found that in Michigan, 40 percent of Muslim voters supported Stein, 18% supported Trump and 12% supported Harris
Other Democrats may have just stayed home, not check the Presidential box on the ballot or written in someone else’s name.
There were also undecided Black male voters who were also upset about the Gaza situation. Some of them went to Trump and others likely just sat it out.
Biden’s unwavering Support for Israel – Harris trying to thread the needle
Biden, coming out of the cold war era, believes that the US needs strong allies in the region against Russia’s influencein the Arab world, to keep the oil flowing, and counter Iran’s growing potential as a nuclear nation. In addition, Israeli lobby groups like the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) wields a lot of Influence in Washington. When Biden was privately angered by Netanyahu’s aggression, he did not waiver in his support.
Harris on the other hand was trying to thread the needle, while remaining loyal to Biden. She declined to meet with Netanyahu when he visited the White House during the time that she had become the Democratic Party Presidential nominee
In her acceptance speech to the DNC convention, she tied to strike a balance: “President Biden and I are working to end this war such that Israel is secure, the hostages are released, the suffering in Gaza ends, and the Palestinian people can realize their right to dignity. Security. Freedom. And self-determination.”
Even with her husband staunchly Jewish, while campaigning Harris announced an anti-Islamophobia strategy – amid the pro-Palestinian protests and soaring antisemitism across the country, on college campuses, on the streets of major cities, and in the halls of Congress. Meanwhile, her stepdaughter was raising money for the Palestinian Children’s Relief Fund on her personal Instagram account.
Some sections of the media nevertheless portrayed Harris as deceptively delivering different messages to Muslim and Jewish voters.
And non-Muslim Pro-Palestinian protest voters believed that under Harris there would be no changes to Biden’s Israeli policy which they were seeking.
Unintended Consequences
Though the moral outrage by traditional Democratic voters was an ethical stand, withholding their vote in the end has not resulted in a more receptive administration judging by the cabinet picks so far.
Indeed, many of them may have made the decision of conscience singly or in small groups. But each of the small decisions cumulatively eclipsed their expected impact on the election.
If any lessons can be drawn from this situation it might be that in an existential election like this one with so much at stake and where every last vote counts, try your best to stand back and get a view of the larger picture and possible consequences of the action you are about to take.
Sometimes you have to stand back and weigh the consequences, you don’t want to cut off your nose to spoil your face.
